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The source ledger

Every market figure, and where it came from.

None of these are our numbers. They are the published figures we use to argue that the problem is worth measuring, and you should treat them the way we do.

Read these caveats first

Every source below sells marketing services into this category, so each has an interest in the numbers looking a certain way. Web Tonic and Tandem also cite overlapping material, so treat them as one line of evidence rather than two independent ones. The ranges are wide because the underlying data is thin. None of them is a measurement of your agency, which is the entire reason the audit starts by measuring it.

M05Two to three applications in a hundred reach program entryInquiry-to-qualified conversion in surrogate recruitment. The denominator is inquiries, not completed applications.
M06Meta cost per lead of $120 to $300Meta specifically, not paid social generally and not blended cost per lead across channels. The page sells nine other channels; this figure does not describe them.
M07$1,500 to $8,000 to find one qualified surrogateReported cost per qualified surrogate. A separate figure from the cost per lead above, not derived from it.
M08Agency fee per completed journey, $25,000 to $50,000The agency's own fee. Not the total cost of a journey to intended parents, which is materially higher.
M13$40k to $86k a year, plus onboardingPosted surrogacy coordinator salary band. Base salary, so a loaded cost is higher.
M10One of the most restricted ad categories on every major platformTikTok restricts or prohibits with no certification path. Meta requires certification. Google runs healthcare-restricted certification market by market.
M11BAA obligations extend to every cloud platform and messaging tool that touches the dataAgencies must execute BAAs when handling PHI for or on behalf of covered entities, and the obligation extends to subcontractors.

Figures we cut, and why.

A ledger that only lists what survived is marketing. These are the numbers that were available, tempting, and left out.

  1. Market size and growth rate

    A widely repeated $14B-with-25%-CAGR figure did not survive checking. The $14B traces to CNBC rather than the outlet it is usually credited to, published CAGRs range from 10.8% to 21.46%, and the 2022 base year is variously given as $5.4B, $13.27B and $14B. Cut rather than hedged.

  2. California's 2026 agency obligations

    Expanded registration, outcome-data reporting and a hidden-fee prohibition are all hedged in the source as things that may expand or could include. Anticipated, not enacted, so not used.

  3. Any payback or savings figure

    Removed twice, deliberately. A journey completes twelve to eighteen months after a twelve-week engagement ends, gated by clinics, attorneys, intended-parent demand and biology. In-engagement metrics are published instead.